The completion of the A14 is a ‘huge achievement and a huge relief’

This article originally appeared in the Hunts Post on 14th June 2022. I’m writing a monthly column for the Hunts Post while I’m mayor.

If you were to stand at Huntingdon train station now and suggest a viaduct carrying an A road over the top of the railway line, the station, and another bridge, people would look at you as if you had taken leave of your senses. 

The viaduct near the railway station wasn’t just an eyesore. It also meant noise and pollution were spread across the town, particularly from all the lorries that use the A14.

However, the completion of the link roads should mean less traffic on the badly congested ring road, and gives easier access to Hinchingbrooke and the train station.

The building works were disruptive, and I really feel for people who live near the sites who have had to put up with the dust and noise, but they were worth waiting for. Removing the viaduct while keeping trains running on the East Coast Main Line was a real feat.

However, there are some things missing from the project that are hopefully unfinished business rather than completely abandoned.

The train station is a huge missed opportunity. The original plans included a public transport hub that would have made it easier for people to make entire journeys without getting in the car.

That’s always good for the environment, but it would be particularly welcome now with petrol prices pushing £2 a litre. Instead of a public transport hub, we have more car parking.

Even worse that not having the public transport hub, we don’t even have a bus shelter or cycle racks. If we’re serious about promoting environmentally sustainable and active travel, those need installing, and quickly.

There’s also work that needs doing to sort out a lot of signage, both in the project area itself and around Huntingdon, as well as a lot of rephasing of traffic lights.

With the viaduct gone, air quality should improve and noise pollution should drop. Traffic should flow better, even as the population of our town and surrounding villages grows, and an important piece of national road infrastructure has been improved.

With so much good work done, I do hope that Cambridgeshire County Council, Highways England, and Network Rail can come together to fix the last few bits so that everyone benefits from this fantastic piece of civil engineering.

The Mayor of Huntingdon

Frankly, it has been a bit of a surreal evening.

I am tremendously grateful to have been elected as Mayor of Huntingdon at this evening’s Town Council, along with Cllr Audrey McAdam as Deputy Mayor. I am a little bit of a loss for words at the moment, as things are only now starting to sink in. I know that there is a great deal of work in the coming year, though, and I look forward to doing my best for our town.I feel like I have more thankyous than I can count – to fellow councillors for supporting me, to my friends and family for coming, to all the people who wished me well this evening and offered their help and support, and to all the Town Council staff for making this the most amazing evening.

Below is a copy of my remarks on being elected.

“The document in front of me says that I now have the opportunity to make a short speech. You will be glad to know that the word ‘short’ is in bold.I would like to start by thanking the members of this Council who have elected me as Mayor.

As my first act as Mayor, I wish to pay tribute to my immediate predecessor, Councillor Karl Webb. I’m sure most people here, if not all, will know Karl and all he has done for Huntingdon, both before and during his mayoralty.In addition to the usual duties of the mayor, he has also, of course, led the council through the very difficult period of covid, with all the challenges that has posed, with poise and with aplomb, while still supporting new councillors, myself included, to give their best.

Karl, thankyou.

I would also like to thank all the staff of Huntingdon Town council, both here in the Town Hall and across Huntingdon, for going above and beyond on so many occasions to make sure we kept providing services to the people of Huntingdon, despite the unprecedented challenges they faced during covid.

In particular, I would like to thank our remarkable town clerk, Mr Philip Peacock. Not only did he keep the show on the road during Covid, he also oversaw, amongst much besides, the completion of the new Crematorium. The Crematorium is the first such facility in the UK to be purpose built and environmentally friendly. This is a remarkable achievement that has brought delegations from across the UK and beyond to understand how it was done. We are fortunate to have such a distinguished clerk, whose knowledge and expertise are recognised in his being the president of the Society of Local Council Clerks.

Mr Clerk, my thanks to you, and I would be grateful if you could convey my and, indeed, the whole council’s thanks to your staff.

It is wonderful to be joined here by friends and family – my wife, Alice, my Dad, Graham, and my friends Saul Jeavons and Su Martin. Thankyou all for coming.I am very much aware that I am a new kid on the block, having only joined the council last year. I do know that I will need to rely on the advice of all our councillors, and particularly our former mayors.In that, we are fortunate to have a great breadth of experience on the council – from Juliet Cole’s many years of charitable work, to Phil Pearce’s legal expertise, and that breadth gives us strength. I am looking forward to getting to know Amanda Charmaine Norton and Gerry Sheils, our newly elected councillors, and to seeing faces both familiar and fresh when we fill the three remaining seats on the council in a few weeks.

I say now that my door will always be open – if you think I’ve missed something, if you think I’ve got something wrong, even if you think I’ve got something right – I promise that I will listen and I will hear you.Turning to the future, I would like to highlight some of the things we have coming up. This year marks, of course, the remarkable achievement of HM The Queen’s Platinum Jubilee. It is worth remarking that HM was already the 12th longest serving monarch of this country when I was born, forty years ago. Seventy years of service to this country and its people is a remarkable achievement, and it is a particular joy for me that I can serve as mayor in this auspicious year and I look forward to joining with you in the celebrations for the Jubilee next month.

Towards the end of the last council, we resolved to sign the Armed Forces Covenant. I am glad that we have made that commitment, and I intend to make sure that we live up to our commitment.

We all know the importance of maintaining and protecting our environment. Huntingdon Town Council has already done much to make ourselves environmentally friendly, and we have an environmental audit reporting soon that will shape our next steps in playing our part in the global fight against climate change.

While there is much to love and celebrate about Huntingdon, we know that there is also much that must be improved. While there may not be much that is in our direct control, there is much that we can do: to listen, to help, and, above all, to speak up. In the words of Saint Óscar Romero, we who have a voice must be a voice for the voiceless.

At the civic service earlier this year, we heard the parable of the talents and the importance of us all using our gifts in the service of others. It is my sincere hope and firm expectation that all those of us who have the privilege of serving on Huntingdon Town Council will do that in this forthcoming year.

So, I stand here as your Mayor. Proud, more than a little nervous, and ready to do my best for our council and our town. I thank you for the trust you have placed in me. With your help, I hope that I – and we – will have a good year – together.”

The GamesHub 40k League

A new gaming cafe, GamesHub, has opened in St Neots. It’s a super place, and I’m taking part in a 1000 point Warhammer 40,000 tournament they’re running and so the 267th Neotian Saints are marching to war again. I have a moment to write down some thoughts. I’m doing this after my round 5 match, so there’s more detail as I remember more of the more recent games!

Round 1 – Steve’s Tyranids

Leman Russ Tank Commanders are great. They’re tough, have a lot of wounds, and can kick out an awful lot of damage. However, they’re also expensive and a massive target. When one is destroyed before it’s even fired a shot, you’ve essentially lost a quarter of your thousand point army from the start, and it’s an uphill battle from there. Fortunately, I still had another one with a ‘nid-munching Punisher Gatling Gun, but it was only lucky rolls that kept me alive.

I’ve ended up trying two regular Leman Russes. For another seventy points, you get twice as many wounds on the same chassis, and in different places on the board. You lose the orders, but you are firing twice as much.

Round 2 – Stephen’s Blood Angels

I lost this game, as I recall, because Stephen was able to get some a couple of units in my lines on deployment, take out my Manticore and one of my transports, and generally cause havoc. My list was a battalion of Scions and a patrol of guard, with the Scions starting in Taurox Primes. At some point, I need to trying using the Taurox Primes just as a weapons platform; I put Scions in them, which there’s no need for on the smaller board and you essentially lose a round of shooting. I only had one squad of Guard, meaning that I was struggling to just cover objectives.

Round 3 – Gary’s Drukhari

Drukhari are a strong faction and Gary’s a strong player, so this was always going to be a tough game. The Dark Lances made short work of my armour, and the Raiders and Reavers dropped enough troops to, well, completely destroy me.

Round 4 – Chris H’s Chaos Marines

Vengeance for Cadia on a Leman Russ Demolisher is really good against Chaos. Add in Hail of Fire for max shots, and – admittedly at the cost of three CP – you’re suddenly kicking out an enormous amount of damage. I won the roll to go first and, especially as the shorter board meant that I could get in range on the first turn, I kicked out a lot of damage. The Demolisher promptly became target #1, but I had another Leman Russ with a battle cannon. And a Basilisk. And a Manticore.

Round 6 – Jim’s Tyranids

Jim brought a real monster mash list, using Crusher Stampede. With a few things in deep strike, he started with six models on the table. I started with sixty infantry, two indirect fire weapons, and two tanks. I was able to screen Jim out from deep striking in my lines, and essentially shot him off the board. Despite that, the match was very close on points – I didn’t move out of my half of the board because I was worried about gribblies appearing in my lines and then I had a wall of Tyranids in my way. Meanwhile, Jim had been racking up points. Jim also failed a charge roll that he really needed to make, and my Demolisher lasted for two rounds on one wound thanks to the 2+ save. It was only some judicious Move! Move! Move! orders that let me get into table quarters and score objectives that gave me the win. Based on that, I made some changes for my next match. Although it had been useful for making sure of my screening, I had one or two squads of guard essentially not doing anything. The Basilisk had also been underwhelming, so I rejigged the list. The basilisk went, two squads of guard were replaced by two squads of Scions, the company commanders were demoted to platoon commanders, and Yarrick and a Tempestor Prime joined the force.

Round 5 – Matt’s Necrons

I actually played this after the round 6 game because of scheduling. The first round was us doing a little bit of a dance around each other, keeping things out of line of sight. However, as I had more troops on the board, I was able to raise banners and be in three quarters of the table for secondaries, and then drop in Scions on turn 2 (although right in one corner, as one solitary Necron Warrior survived my first round attack’s and. The Manticore earned its points back again, particularly with Yarrick nearby as a way of re-rolling 1s. Yarrick is an expensive way of doing this, but he’s useful in case anything does get into the back lines, and the Master of Ordnance’s similar ability doesn’t apply to Leman Russ tanks and has to be on targets over 36″ away, which is essentially nothing on the smaller, 1000 point boards.

Matt brought the C’Tan Shard of the Nightbringer. I popped the occasional shot at it, generally when I had nothing else to shoot at. Realistically, I wasn’t going to be able to destroy it, and it was only some lucky morale rolls that kept me holding a key objective. However, much as with my Leman Russ Tank Commanders, the Nightbringer is an amazing model with amazing rules, but costs a lot of points. A third of Jim’s army was taken up in that one model, and it meant that I could focus down some of the other threats. I had two Leman Russes and the Manticore in Yarrick’s Aura for most of the battle. Combined with Direct Onslaught, the Manticore was able to take out almost all the main melee threat – a big squad of Skorpekh Destroyers – in one volley before they could close to range, and I’d taken out the other worry – a pair of Lokhust Heavy Destroyers – that were a threat to my tanks.

We wrapped at the end of round three and quickly played out the rest of the game as Matt was left with the Nightbringer and a couple of bits I would easily deal with. I wouldn’t have been able to touch the Nightbringer, who would have been scoring primaries and secondaries, but not at fast enough a rate as I only had to sit on two objectives to score fifteen points in each of the last rounds.

In response to Craig McCann

An article by Dr. Craig McCann for the Centre for the Analysis of the Radical Right caught my eye and, sadly, not in a good way. CARR is an excellent resource, but I am surprised that they published something like this – not because I object to criticism of anti-fascists[1], but because it’s done in such a ham-fisted way.

The article, as I read it, makes three points. Firstly, activists who describe themselves as anti-fascists are infiltrating the countering violent extremism (CVE) field. Secondly, those activists advocate violence and other criminality and, at least to some extent, this is new. Thirdly, Dr McCann feels he has to challenge the narrative that “the only way to oppose the radical right is by emulating their tactics” because violence is an ineffective way of challenging the far right.

All three points are either mistaken or unsubstantiated. I appreciate that Dr McCann has written a blog post, rather than an academic article, but there needs to be at least some attempt to stand up eyebrow-raising claims. A single person’s view is subject to all the human frailties we know so well; I’m sure Dr. McCann is entirely honest and straightforward in the articulation of his views, and I’m sure that he is highlighting what he thinks is a genuine problem. It may well be that there is a genuine problem. At the end of the article, however, I really don’t have much to tell me whether there is a problem or not.

The first point, as I say above, is that activists who describe themselves as anti-fascists are infiltrating the CVE field. My immediate question is ‘how do you know?’. The suggestion is that there are people who soi-disant anti-fascists joining the field. It strikes me off the bat that it is at least possible that, rather that infiltration, views within the field are changing. If people are infiltrating, that suggests people are joining. How many? How have you counted?

I can perhaps illustrate that with a personal example. Although I have been active in the Labour Party to a greater or lesser extent for two decades, I am not a supporter of Mr. Jeremy Corbyn or many of his policies. Indeed, I saw much of his support within the party as Johnny-come-latelies that advocated positions that were damaging to Labour or were wholly opposed to the values I believe Labour stands for (notably, anti-Semitism). I would, at different times, have said that there were few but vocal supporters of Mr. Corbyn within the party, or that a great many members supported Mr. Corbyn. Being in the middle of things, and without access to polling or somesuch, I couldn’t reach a reliable conclusion.

Polling isn’t straightforward, but the process of undertaking it does help us pin down some of our theoretical positions. When Dr. McCann says that people are infiltrating the CVE field, exactly what does ‘field’ mean? Is that anyone who talks about CVE? People professionally employed in the field? Let us say that, for instance, more people are turning up to academic conferences on CVE and saying silly things. That doesn’t mean there’s a significant change in CVE as discipline or as practice. That is not to say there’s not a change; it’s just not enough to draw the conclusion.

I do agree with Dr. McCann that not everyone who labels themselves as anti-fascist necessarily has a particularly good understanding of the varieties of far right, or that the far right is a different kind of thing from the “regular right” (although there is overlap in many cases).

Secondly, the article says that violence is not an effective way of combatting the far right, and that this has some degree of novelty as it is a phenomenon that has grown of late. I agree with Dr. McCann on the first part. The second part is more complicated. Violence by fascists and militant anti-fascists, or by para-fascists and para-anti-fascists, has waxed and waned together; viz., the Organisation for the Maintenance of Supply and the Workers’ Defence Corps; I Squad and the LLX; the National Front and Red Action; perhaps, the EDL and UAF. While I can certainly believe that a rise in violence opposed to the far right has led to more people in the CVE space advocating the same (although, again, this needs substantiation; it really is not good enough to say ‘lots of my colleagues advocate violence’), this is a longstanding phenomenon. Given that it seems to have some connection to increased far right violence, the explanation may be about how differing groups interact.

I will say here that a single interview on YouTube with, at the time of writing, thirty-eight thousand views, might be an interesting example but it doesn’t do anything to support the claims Dr. McCann makes. You can find almost anything on YouTube.

Early in the article, Dr. McCann says “Their grievances against the status quo run wild and it is often difficult to identify a coherent strand of thinking, other than anger.” This seems intuitively correct to me, at least in the case of the United States, on which I believe he may be focussing. Throughout Dr McCann’s work, there is a laudable call to understand the processes that drive people to the far right. I warrant that the same should be done with the far left. There is a populism of the left as well as of the right; there is a rejection of the liberal state on the left as well as on the right. We should be asking questions along the lines of whether the current economic situation drives people to the extremes, and why some people go to one extreme and some to another.

One of the recurrent errors I think Dr. McCann makes in his article is to use a tweet and its replies, or a YouTube video, as evidence. I don’t see how those represent what is going on in the CVE field. What someone says on Twitter, and how people reply to it, don’t indicate much, at least not without a lot of other work, and can’t be on what we base our positions.

Thirdly, the article looks to challenge “the implied narrative that the only way to oppose the radical right is by emulating their tactics”. I agree with the substance; violence is not the only way, or even an effective way, of opposing the radical right (or far right, or fascists; they’re not all the same thing). It seems likely to me that there are more people advocating that view; I’m really not sure how many of them are in the academy etc. rather than talking on Twitter. As Dr. McCann himself points out, many of these people appear to be performatively advocating violence rather than engaging in; as I suggest above, this is something that warrant study and understanding.

Antifa and anti-fascism are not synonyms. That is a truism, but it illustrates a lot. Equally, not everyone who calls themselves an anti-fascist online actually does anything other than talk, though I recognise that does have an effect. Not everyone who calls themselves an anti-fascist is in the CVE space. I fear that there is confusion of terms that leads to a confusion of ideas.

If I may offer a criticism of CARR[2], this article needed another editing pass. Putting in some references and changing the tone to be less grumpy[3] would have helped make the article sound like less of a rant against woke lefty snowflakes, and more like someone trying to highlight that there may be a developing problem in their field.

None of this is to say that anti-fascism, anti-fascists, or opposition to the far right more broadly gets everything right, is pure of motive, or should be immune from criticism. Where mistakes are made or points missed in an academic discipline, they should be corrected and improved on, and doubly so in a field like CVE that has clear, direct, and immediate public policy implications. I suspect that Dr. McCann is right in saying that there is more advocacy of violence amongst those opposed to the far right; I think there’s a decent chance he’s right that more people in the CVE space are advocating violence, or at least turning a blind eye, than previously. I suspect he is also overstating how big those problems are, and by a great deal in the latter case. Either way, the arguments he makes need substantiation.

Those criticisms need substantiation for the sake of academic rigour. They also need substantiation because there is a discourse, often used in bad faith, that complains, crudely, about woke lefty snowflakes cancelling everything. I’m not for a moment denying the existence of woke lefty snowflakes who want to cancel everything[4], but their existence, influence, and importance are deliberately overstated by actors who want to tarnish anything that looks at fascism, the radical right, and the populist right in order to allow their own illiberal, anti-democratic agendas to flourish.


[1] My own thesis, for what it is worth, is on civil society opposition to the far right in Britain, specifically looking at 2005 to 2015. I am quite critical of quite a lot of anti-fascist activity for being either ineffectual and a waste of time and effort or, in some cases, actually counterproductive.

[2] I do this with considerable hesitation, as I’m going to be launching a blog for my workplace soon that, at least to begin with, I’m going to be editing.

[3] I am aware of exactly how hypocritical it is for me to criticise anyone for being grumpy.

[4] In fairness to myself, I only want to cancel most things.

Councillor Cole

As no election was called to fill the late Cllr. Trish Shrapnel’s seat representing East ward on Huntingdon Town Council, it was filled by co-option and I’m delighted (and frankly surprised) to be able to say that I was co-opted last Thursday evening and, once I’ve completed the relevant paperwork and declarations, will be the new councillor, at least until the elections next May.

I am having a bit of a think about exactly how I want to approach things. Obviously, I want to do as good a job as I can, but there is not much time left in the term. I think one of my priorities is going to have to be to let people know that I am their new representative on Huntingdon Town Council. The obvious way to do that is social media, but I need to work out some rules for myself before I start doing that. I’m going to speak to the Clerk and a couple of other people to work out how to do it in a way that is useful, doesn’t waste time, and doesn’t send my or anyone else’s blood pressure through the roof. Of course, social media has its limits, not least that not everyone has it, so I’ll have to think of something else, too.

I’m going to rework this website, too – this incarnation comes from when I was doing my PhD and was considering a career in academia – and so I might move things around a bit to make it more useful for constituents who want to contact me.

It has been a busy few days since I was co-opted, not least with the Remembrance Sunday service this morning in which I laid a wreath on behalf of the Labour Party, and it’s only now beginning to sink in. I often say on social media, when people are criticizing politicians as feckless and self-serving, that the vast majority of the politicians I’ve met are decent, hard-working people who are trying to do the best for their communities, even if I happen to disagree with them and the systems of government aren’t ideal. Having talked the talk, I now need to walk the walk. Beyond that, Huntingdonshire District Council are starting a process of consultation on the future of Huntingdon and, in particular, the high street and I hope I can play a useful role in that, both myself and in communicating the views of my constituents.

It’s going to be a busy few months.

Cashino on Huntingdon High Street

Unfortunately, the gambling arcade on Huntingdon High Street is going ahead. I think it’s the wrong decision, though I understand why the DMC reached the decision. As the law stands, you have to have what are called ‘material considerations’ – basically, something in planning law. As I understand it, that’s because the DMC is essentially carrying out a regulatory function. My impression is that several councillors who voted for the application did so because, although they did not actually want the thing to go ahead, they felt that there was no planning reason to turn it down. One of the other problems with planning law is that decisions can be taken to appeal and often – too often – planning inspectors side with developers. Care has to be taken in giving reasons for decling a proposal as otherwise it can be overturned by the planning inspector, sometimes with costs awarded as well.

Three councillors, including Cllrs Conboy and Humphrey, voted against. Cllr Wakeford spoke against, having recused himself. Cllrs Butler and Neish proposed the restriction on hours. I will say, though, that I was unimpressed with one member of the committee – I don’t know their name – who, as I recall, said that the police didn’t have an problem with the application, and so basically there weren’t any reasons to oppose it. Indeed, I think too much of the committee’s debate was on anti-social behaviour, rather than social and economic impacts, or compatibility with the local and neighbourhood plan. I think there were grounds to reject the application because it doesn’t comply with the Huntingdonshire local plan and the Huntingdon neighbourhood plan that weren’t really addressed and, in that respect, I felt the debate was lacking.

One of the things that became clear in the meeting is the effect of the 2021 National Planning Policy Framework and, more particularly, the change in Use Classes made in 2020 have taken yet more power away from local government and effectively given it to developers with the imprimatur of the state. Despite talk of local politics and levelling up, we continue to have a very centralised state in the UK.

One of the things that became clear in the meeting is the effect of the 2021 National Planning Policy Framework and, more particularly, the change in Use Classes made in 2020 mean that there is even more leeway for developers, and so less power for local councils to shape how their communities develop. I don’t want to be partisan, and planning in the UK has been a mess for a long time, but this has to be laid squarely at the door of the current government. The changes make it easier for one type of premises to be converted to another without reference to local councils. The UK, and particularly England outside of London, is very centralised, and I don’t think the discussions of localism and levelling up will have much meaning unless there is meaningful devolution of decision making and funding away from Westminster and Whitehall. Unfortunately, I think that the changes in the law mean that the Huntingdonshire Local Plan and the Huntingdon Neighbourhood Plan are, as with similar plans across the country, much less important than they were. I think that fact, and the effect of covid, may mean that we need to revisit both documents.

Below is the text (more or less) of what I said at last night’s Huntingdonshire District Council Development Management Committee. The supporting papers, including the my written representations, are on the HDC website, particularly Late Representations 2.

To begin, I should say that Huntingdon Town Council, 677 petitioners, Cllr Wakeford, and I don’t share Oliver Cromwell’s views on gambling. The objection is to this particular proposal in this particular location at this particular time because this establishment, in a prime location at the centre of the High Street, is going to make the town less attractive both to other businesses and to visitors and shoppers at a time when Huntingdon High Street is fragile. 

There are sufficient material considerations for the DMC to decline this application. As set out in my written representation, this proposal can be declined under NPPF paragraph 11 as it is neither economically nor socially sustainable. It is not economically sustainable because of the negative knock-on effects it will have on other businesses, present and future, on the high street. It is not socially sustainable because the harms that gambling causes will be magnified in this prominent location at the intersection of the High Street, Chequers Court, and St Benedicts. 

Even if you consider it to be sustainable, NPPF paragraph 12 makes clear that the proposal must still meet with local and neighbourhood plans. As the Deputy Mayor of Huntingdon and I set out, the proposal does not meet TC1 on retail development, TC2 on the public realm, TC3 on St Benedict’s Court, or TL2 on leisure and community facilities from the Huntingdon Neighbourhood Plan, or LP21 on town centre vitality and viability, or LP34 on heritage assets and their settings from the Huntingdonshire local plan. The proposal can be and should be declined on any and all of these grounds.

In crude terms, a prospective business owner who comes to Huntingdon and sees all it can support is a gambling arcade is not going to be inclined to invest. A visitor to Huntingdon who sees that a gambling arcade is slap-bang in the middle of the high street is not going to be inclined to return. I do invite you to do a Google image search for ‘Cashino’ and determine for yourselves how well that would sit with the local and neighbourhood plans.

As the Grimsey Review, and particularly the post-covid update, shows, high streets are at something of a turning point. The fallout from covid seems to be that more people will be working from home, but that retail is struggling and will continue to struggle. We need to decide what we want our High Street to be – either a prosperous market town, with a vibrant high street that caters to the increasing number of people working from home, or the kind of unloved high street that is too familiar to us, stuck in a vicious circle of low footfall and boarded up shops.

Some stats based on the 2021 Wiwijury

The Eurovision season starts in earnest for me when Wiwibloggs start releasing their jury videos. I love the discussions between all the panelists, and by the time the videos are coming out I’ve listened to the songs enough to have opinions on them. At the end of the video, they give an average of the scores from the jurors. The average* (strictly speaking, the arithmetic mean) is a great indicator of how popular a song is; generally, the higher the average, the more popular the song. However, Eurovision is won by people voting for you, not rating every song.

We can see how the average loses some of the detail by taking two fictional countries, Megalomania and Ruritania. Megalomania’s entry, ‘LovePanther’, is a pretty generic pop song, while Ruritania’s entry, ‘Loud Screaming for Peace’ is a divisive ethno-techno-metal number. If the entry from Megalomania received a six from every Wiwijuror, it would receive an average of six. If half the Wiwijurors gave the song from Ruritania zero points, while the other half gave it ten, it would receive an average of five. Based on the average, Megalomania would beat Ruritania. However, the people that really like ‘Loud Screaming for Peace’ would vote for it, while Megalomania might not receive any votes because, while no-one objects to it, they’d be voting for their favourites instead.

One way of capturing this spread of votes is the standard deviation. This gives us an indication of how ‘controversial’ a song is (in the sense of people disagreeing about its merits). A low number means more agreement, and a high number means less agreement.

CountryStandard deviationCountryStandard deviation
Switzerland0.76Australia1.61
Malta1.04Azerbaijan1.61
Sweden1.17Latvia1.63
Croatia1.27Finland1.69
San Marino1.27Spain1.71
Belgium1.28Poland1.75
Israel1.31Austria1.78
Iceland1.37Slovenia1.84
United Kingdom1.38Estonia1.84
Ireland1.40Ukraine1.84
Greece1.42Serbia1.97
Moldova1.44Portugal2.01
Romania1.48Italy2.03
Russia1.48Bulgaria2.07
Cyprus1.50Norway2.09
Lithuania1.51Germany2.12
North Macedonia1.55Netherlands2.16
France1.58Denmark2.21
Albania1.58Czechia2.23
Georgia1.59

However, controversial doesn’t mean good. Franc and Albania are equally (according to the Wiwijury) controversial in that they have the same standard deviation. However, Barbara Pravi’s ‘Voilà’ is a masterpiece of composition, writing, and performance that is pushing for the very top, while Albania’s Balkan ballad is, I fear, going to struggle to get out of the semis (sorry, Anxhela!). I’m slightly surprised that the Netherlands has such a high standard deviation, but I can easily see that the naff lyrics and Melfest-machine-feeling of Benny Cristo’s ‘Omaga’ from Czechia would be divisive, as would the eighties styling of Fyr & Flamme’s ‘Øve os på hinanden’; for some reason, there are people who look back at the eighties fondly. ‘I Don’t Feel Hate’ by Jendrik from Germany is also divisive, which makes sense; some people like the wackiness, while some people just see it as lyrically annoying and preachy and musically too many things mashed together.

I’ve been trying to think of a single number to capture both central tendency and dispersion (average and standard deviation), but I just don’t think it’s possible. The best I could come up with was average plus one standard deviation, but that is basically pulled out of the air – about two-thirds of votes come within one standard deviation above or below the mean in a normally distribution (though, as we will see, not all the songs’ verdicts from the Wiwijury are normally distributed).

A better alternative than trying to boil everything down to one number is, I think, to represent it graphically.

The fat bit just before 7.5 indicates where lots of votes went for Croatia, with a few higher and a few more lower. Croatia has an average of 6.73 and a standard deviation of 1.27. Basically, there’s a lot of agreement that is a really good, but not spectacular, song, with a few people rating it higher and a few lower. The highest score was a 9, while the lowest was a 4.5. The curve suggests what the distribution might be if there were more people in the Wiwijury.

On its own, though, that doesn’t tell us much. Let’s put them all together and see what we get.

This list is sorted by average, which actually suggests that the average is a pretty good indicator of how good a song is – remember, the fatter a section is, the more Wiwijurors went for that score for that song. However, it does provide some possible insights for how songs close to each other might do.

Let’s start at the top. France and Malta are an interesting pair to consider and raises a really interesting question about how we interpret these graphs: how far from in from the right should we go? If we were just looking at scores of ten, we would clearly rather be France than Malta. Because France has a longer tail, though, there comes a point at which Malta has more high scores than France. If we say that votes from the Wiwijury of 9+ translate to points from the public televote and the professional juries, France is in the better position. If it’s 8+, they’re probably very close. If it’s 7+, it’s probably Malta that will edge it.

This brings us onto Switzerland. With the caveat from the paragraph above, I think we might actually expect, based on Wiwijury ratings, France and Malta to do better than Switzerland, even though their averages are lower, as they have more of the highest scores. That’s best seen with France – it has a long tail to the left of people who aren’t as keen on the song, which drags the average down. However, you can’t vote against songs.

On a similar basis, I think we might expect Italy to do better than the average would suggest. I’m a little worried about the UK; James Newman is piling up the sevens, but few scores higher than that. Of course, a fantastic stage show would help, and the gaps between verses and lyrics, and the refrain of ‘light up the room!’ suggest that there’s going to be fireworks from Blighty, figuratively and possibly literally.

Portugal have entered another song that I love that no-one else seems to (I still listen to ‘O Jardim’), but the bulge to the right of its ridgeline suggests they might do better than the average suggests (unless those are all the Wiwijurors who know the story behind the song). You can see how controversial Germany is with how wide its distribution is. I think Ukraine might do worse than its average suggests (which makes me sad, as I will almost certainly be voting for GO_A on the night) as it has a peak at around seven and a long tail to the right. Austria might be above where the average would indicate, and so on.

I might look back at previous years and see how well something like mean plus standard deviation, or mean plus interquartile range, of Wiwijury results ranks performances against their actual results. Of course, the Wiwijury results don’t take into account stage performances, national voting patterns and so on, but it’s interesting nonetheless. I suspect that there’ll be a score that effective translates into votes/not votes, and that will answer some of the questions above. Another alternative would be to use a Borda count to rank the songs, as we know how each juror voted.

* Wiwibloggs drops the highest and lowest score when calculating their average to deal with bias; I don’t think there’s a good statistical reason to do that, so I don’t do it.

Papa Nurgle’s blessings

The arrival of the blessings of Papa Nurgle mean that I’ve not played in person for over a year, but I have been playing a bit on Tabletop Simulator. It’s not the same, but it does mean you can try various lists before buying and painting the models.

The list I’ve run a few times lately is 2 company commanders, a tank commander with demolisher cannon, 6 infantry squads, 3 squads of seven bullgryns with slabshields, 2 Ministorum priests, 2 full payload Manticores, 2 Chimeras, and a Vindicare assassin.

I think the core of the list – lots of squads, lots of bullgryns, lots of Manticores – works. I do quite well on primary objectives, and can effectively prevent deepstrikes, by virtue of just having so many bodies. The Manticores provide somewhat unpredictable amounts of damage, but at effectively unlimited range and without needing line of sight.

The issue I’ve had is with secondary objectives. I’m generally going for engage on all fronts and raise the banners high, and then picking another one. The assassin is there to try, obviously, to get the assassinate secondary objective. I suspect I’m not playing the assassin effectively, but combined with another problem with the list, it leads me to rethink things a little. The tank commander is generally destroyed on turn one or two. That in and of itself isn’t a bad thing – it’s soaking up an awful lot of damage – but it does mean that it’s not worth investing points in sponson weapons or, indeed, making it a tank commander instead of a regular Leman Russ. I’m thinking I might be better off ditching the tank commander and the assassin, and running two Leman Russes instead. That would provide more high toughness wounds, and hopefully divert attention away from everything else.

An alternative variation is to drop the tanks altogether along with two of the squads and have Scions and Valkyries flying around.

I’m going to keep playing around with different lists and I don’t want to buy loads of models yet, but it does seem that I’m going to be running 60+ infantry, a lot of bullgryns, and a couple of Manticores as the core of my army.

League 1: the 6P principle

A teacher of mine at junior school told me once of the 6P principle – proper planning prevents pathetically poor performances. Unfortunately, the officer commanding the Neotian Saints did not prepare well and the performance was, well, predictable.

My first big mistake was putting my Tank Commander – a Leman Russ with the Hammer of Sunderance – front and centre. It was destroyed immediately by a charging Helbrute. Until the Greater Good came out, I was in the habit of running a Tank Commander with a Punisher gatling gun, which has a ran of 24″ and so it would generally sit there to deal with any infantry rushing up the board (or, frankly, with forty gatling gun shots and nine heavy bolter rounds, anything at all rushing up the board). As currently equipped with the Hammer of Sunderance, though, it has a range of 72″. It can reach across most of the battlefield and blow stuff up from a great distance. Given the investment in points and that I was planning to pour command points in to make maximum use of the big gun on top, losing it first turn was a big blow.

That leads me on to the second and third points. One is that I didn’t have a backup plan for losing such a bit asset. There’s no good way or time to lose something so valuable, but it’s likely to happen. The other is that I really didn’t think in advance how I could spend my big stack of command points. Part of that is that I forgot to bring my reference cards – it sounds stupid, but having a stack of cards is a big help and rushing around to get ready to head out meant that I forgot to bring them. Even so, I should have had an idea of what I was going to be spending them on and, indeed, what I could spend them on. Normally, I wouldn’t use the stratagem to automatically pass morale tests as it wasn’t worth the CP, but it changes when you’re halfway through a battle and you still have eight left.

My opponent did well, aside from some confusion with the rules, and both made the opening and then took advantage of it. The Armoured Sentinels performed well again. I needed to move them and a line of infantry forward more aggressively; I lost the match 13-4 because I wasn’t taking the objective markers (obviously). I’m going to need to rethink how I’m deploying at the start of the game. All the above said, my troops held on pretty well. The Scions didn’t last that long – I may actually start with them on the board and see how they do instead of dropping them in from orbit.

I have a friendly game before round 2 of the tournament, so I’ll try tweaking a few things.

Task Force Carabid

My local 40k group is starting a league and I’m taking part. Over recent weeks, I’ve been running variations on a minimal guard battalion with an assortment of tanks, artillery, Scions, bullgryns, and Starstriders added on, and I’ve come up with some thoughts on what my list will be.

Whenever I’m working out whether the points cost of a unit is worth it, my question has become if I’d rather have the equivalent points value of standard infantry. Particularly as I’m usually running three artillery pieces, I need plenty of infantry to screen them before I even think about taking objectives. More than once, I’ve had to do a hurried redeployment as something gribbly starts coming towards one of those big hitters and, even if it works, it’s inefficient. Bullgryns are great, but three isn’t enough and, at 40 points a model, they start becoming expensive. The Elucidian Starstrides are a huge amount of fun, and potentially work as a sort of distraction carnifex because no-one’s seen them, but their best use is sitting on an objective and being really difficult to shift. The Valkyrie isn’t worth the points cost unless you’re doing an alpha strike; it doesn’t put out enough damage to warrant its inclusion, and it doesn’t add anything to the Scions’ deep strike ability except arriving on turn one.

Given the above, I’ve decided to run a brigade formation. Between the points spent on the extra troops and the fast attack choices needed to run a brigade, it means that I have to take one less ‘fun’ thing – the Valkyrie, bullgryns, Starstriders, etc. – but it means that I have a more coherent force and, crucially, lots of command points to spend each match.

The fast attack option I’m taking is three Armoured Sentinels. I ran them as a single unit in a battalion in my last game and, well, they’re tough little buggers. There’s a stratagem from Greater Good that allows particularly accurate shooting in the first round, allowing them to run up the battlefield and pop off a few shots, that was particularly good. However, it only applies to a single unit, and I’m having to run three units of one Sentinel. The ideal would be to have them in a single unit to maximise the effectiveness of the stratagem, perhaps with Rough Riders taking up the other two fast attack slots. However, I don’t have the Rough Riders built and I do have a second Leman Russ tank built.

That stratagem comes from the new Greater Good book. There’s another stratagem in there that, along with the Hammer of Sunderance from Vigilus Defiant, makes for a Leman Russ that kick out an enormous amount of damage – 6 shots instead of D6, and 3 damage instead of D3 damage. If the tank it’s on moves less than half speed, it fires twice, so that’s a potential thirty-six wounds flying out of the barrel. It does require a couple of CP a turn to use the stratagem, hence the attraction of the 12CP from the brigade detachment.

The other big change from Greater Good is custom regiments; instead of choosing a regiment that gives you a couple of bonuses, you can choose two bonuses from a list. Taking a custom regiment instead of one of the standard regiments isn’t a no-brainer; there are some really good options amongst the standard regiments that aren’t available from the custom list, and they also bring some unique stratagems and characters. However, the combination of longer rapid fire range for the infantry and healing wounds for the vehicles seems too good a combination to pass up for a mixed infantry and artillery brigade. There are also new regimental doctrines available for Scions.

The ‘fun’ bit I am including is a battalion of Scions. They don’t last long, but they provide mobility to what can be quite a static army and they can deliver a real punch when needed. I do just love the models and the flavour of them. I’ve reconfigured the squads a bit, and they’re not getting any vehicles. I hope it all works. The doctrine I’m taking gives them an extra six inches of range, and so an extra three inches of rapid fire range. That means they can deep strike and immediately be in rapid fire range.

Here is the list for what I’ve named Task Force Carabid. The Carabidae are the ground beetles, which includes bombardier beetles; it felt appropriate for the amount of artillery.

Task Force Carabid – Order of Battle

  • 267th Neotian Saints Brigade
    • Regimental Doctrine
      • Disciplined Shooters (Rapid fire within 18”)
      • Jury-rigged Repairs (Vehicles repair each turn)
    • HQ [248pts]
      • Tank Commander [188pts]: Battle Cannon [22pts], Emperor’s Fist, Heavy Bolter [8pts], Heavy Bolters [16pts], Relic (Emperor’s Fist): Hammer of Sunderance, Up-armoured, Warlord
      • Company Commander [30pts]: Chainsword, Laspistol
      • Company Commander [30pts]: Chainsword, Laspistol
    • Troops [240pts]
      • Infantry Squad [40pts]. 9x Guardsman [36pts]. Sergeant [4pts]: Laspistol
      • Infantry Squad [40pts]. 9x Guardsman [36pts]. Sergeant [4pts]: Laspistol
      • Infantry Squad [40pts]. 9x Guardsman [36pts]. Sergeant [4pts]: Laspistol
      • Infantry Squad [40pts]. 9x Guardsman [36pts]. Sergeant [4pts]: Laspistol
      • Infantry Squad [40pts]. 9x Guardsman [36pts]. Sergeant [4pts]: Laspistol
      • Infantry Squad [40pts]. 9x Guardsman [36pts]. Sergeant [4pts]: Laspistol
    • Elites [67pts]
      • Astropath [21pts]: Telepathica Stave [6pts]
      • Commissar [16pts]: Bolt pistol [1pts]
      • Master of Ordnance [30pts]: Relic: Kurov’s Aquila
    • Fast Attack [9 PL, 120pts]
      • Armoured Sentinel [40pts]: Plasma Cannon [10pts]
      • Armoured Sentinel [40pts]: Plasma Cannon [10pts]
      • Armoured Sentinel [40pts]: Plasma Cannon [10pts]
    • Heavy Support [491pts]
      • Basilisk [108pts]: Heavy Bolter [8pts]
      • Leman Russ Battle Tank [10 PL, 137pts]: Battle Cannon [22pts], Heavy Bolter [8pts]
      • Manticore [8 PL, 133pts]: Heavy Bolter [8pts]
      • Wyvern [6 PL, 113pts]: Heavy Bolter [8pts]
  • 43rd Iotan Dragons Battalion
    • Regimental doctrine
      • 43 Iotan Dragons: +6” to range of rapid fire weapons
    • HQ
      • Tempestor Prime [35pts]: Hot-shot Laspistol
      • Tempestor Prime [35pts]: Hot-shot Laspistol
    • Troops
      • Militarum Tempestus Scions [114pts]. 5x Scion with Hot-shot lasgun [35pts]. 4x Scion with Plasma gun [72pts]. Tempestor [7pts]: Chainsword, Hot-shot Laspistol
      • Militarum Tempestus Scions [114pts]. 5x Scion with Hot-shot lasgun [35pts]. 4x Scion with Plasma gun [72pts]. Tempestor [7pts]: Chainsword, Hot-shot Laspistol
      • Militarum Tempestus Scions [3 PL, 35pts]. 4x Scion [28pts]. Tempestor [7pts]: Chainsword, Hot-shot Laspistol

1499 points

Command points
Battle-forged +3
Brigade +12
Battalion +5
Emperor’s Fist Tank Company -1
Tank Ace -1
Imperial Commander’s Armoury -1
Total 17