Connecticut Avenue, Washington, DC, 22 February

I lived, for a short time, on Connecticut Avenue in DC and it was with a few hours of layover and a profound sense of nostalgia that I took a very familiar train journey, on the red line from Union Station to Cleveland Park.

Things there have both changed and not changed. The Uptown Theatre is, of course, still there and a few of the shops – Uptown Opticians, Magruder’s Farmers’ Market, Ireland’s 4 Provinces (now called Ireland’s 4 Fields), Nanny O’Briens and the 7-Eleven – that I used to frequent are still there. The Park & Shop by Cleveland Park metro station was one of the USA’s first strip malls; fortunately, it was still enough of a novelty for people to give some consideration to making it attractive and it is vastly more pleasant that some of the shopping parades you might see in the USA today. Some have gone; the coffee shop I used to stop at almost every day has been replaced by a health food store and a couple of bars have gone.

That much is to be expected; business close, people move on and areas change. What surprised me was that Cleveland Park – a relatively well-heeled neighbourhood – seemed to be suffering. Even on Sundays, it used to be busy and it was always well-kept. Now, there are a few empty shops and the streets are a little shabby. I suppose that the recession means people aren’t painting the storefronts and the District can’t pick up the trash as often; I don’t know. It was terribly sad to walk around. Don’t get me wrong; I’m sure that Cleveland Park is still a lovely place to live and it’s still pretty well-to-do; my memory is probably adding a goodly amount of gilding as well. If there is one part of the USA that I know better than any other, it is Cleveland Park. That little part of Washington is suffering.

Anyone watching me wander round must have thought I was quite mad but, in the end, there didn’t seem much to do other than head back to Union Station. I guess that Peter de Vries was right – “nostalgia isn’t what it used to be”.

xD.

Why we should take non-Brits from Guantanamo

Iain Dale asks why we should accept people who aren’t connected with Britain from Guantánamo Bay. These are my reasons why we should.

Firstly, it is in our strategic interest for two reasons. I will look at the morality and legality later, but it is enough to say that many states and people, friendly, neutral and hostile, regard both Guantánamo as immoral and the UK as very close to the United States. By acting to expedite the closing of Guantánamo, we are acting to right a perceived wrong. It also improves our standing within the EU and NATO if we can demonstrate an ability to act as an effective link or broker between the western and eastern sides of the Atlantic. I would add that there might well be (although I do not know this for a fact) people who would be repatriated to, say, Bosnia-Herzegovina. While I do not wish to impugn Bosnia-Herzegovina and am using it just as an example, I do not believe that it, or many other states, have the state-capacity to effectively monitor these people. If we look slightly more widely around the Balkans, the apparent ease with which people evaded the ICTY, I believe the point is proven. In the long-term, taking in detainees here is more secure than leaving them in limbo or Ruritania.

Secondly, it is expeditious. Whether Mr Dale likes it or not, President-Elect Obama has made it clear that Guantanamo is to be closed. As I mentioned, we are seen as close to the US in foreign policy terms. One of the big problems with Guantánamo was the lack of clarity as to what was going to happen to people held there. We now have a resolution; however, we will have to accept people who do not have an immediate connection to the US for a few reasons. One is that some states will not accept people who have a prior or stronger connection to them. We can exert more moral pressure on them to accept people from Guantánamo if we show how much we are doing; in any case, it will not work for everyone. There are some states that it would be wrong to ‘export’ these people to; they are those states that would torture them. They would go from a frying pan to a rather hotter fire and many of the problems we face because of Guantánamo would be reinforced.

Thirdly, it is morally right. Guantánamo was an abrogation of rights, poorly implemented and conceived, that took away some of our moral high ground and constitutes a serious threat to habeas corpus in the USA. Its closure rectifies at least some of those issues. Moreover, the USA is our friend and ally; if it seeks our support on this, given that the costs are minimal and the benefits great, I would have hoped it would have been a no-brainer.

If I may refer to the title of Iain’s post – “Guantánamo is a problem made in America” – I would contend that the problem may have been made there, but that does not relieve of us our obligations to justice and due process, or to our ally, or the effects its existence and the method of its closure may have on us.

In short, it is both morally right and in our strategic interest.

xD.

Fannie and Freddie’s moral hazards

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been taken into ‘conservatorship’. I’m no expert, but the issuing of new, common stock to the federal government and the drop in value of existing stock means that, effectively, Fannie and Freddie have been nationalised, albeit on a temporary basis. The Congressional Budget Office has apparently said that the potential cost is on the order of US$25bn. The about guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is US$5.3tn or, put another way, twice the size of the entire UK economy. I wonder if this is the largest nationalisation ever.

Bailouts like this always raise the spectre of moral hazard. The implication was always there as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were set up as Government-Sponsored Enterprises; indeed, Ginnie Mae, which was hived off from Fannie Mae in 1968, actually has federal guarantees. In short, if an organisation knows that it will not be allowed to fail, it will take greater risks than it might otherwise do.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said, according to Guardian Daily, that the two institutions are “so big and so interwoven in the financial system that a failure of either of them would affect the whole world economy”. The result is that there is moral hazard by the very existence of players that have such an overwhelming position in a given market; the implication is that, should everything go west, the state will have to intervene.

I do wonder if the same applies when everyone in a given market is heavily involved in a given part of that market, particularly when the market as a whole is important. If everyone in banking became heavily involved in, say, arbitrage. If a problem were to emerge with the arbitrage market, the state might be forced to intervene because of the effective monoculture. There is a moral hazard in the existence of that monoculture. You would hope that individual banks (or whatever) would avoid such a position or, at least, advertise to their investors that they are engaging in a risky affair. If everyone’s doing it, groupthink will dimish the perception of risk and, because the system cannot be allowed to catastrophically fail, take advantage of the moral hazard.

xD.

The persistence of American power – in response to Matt Sinclair

Matt Sinclair has an interesting post up, in response to Will Hutton’s article, on the role of universities in promoting America’s hegemonic position. In short, Matt says that non-Western countries lack (in short) the cultural situation that allows Socratic method to flourish and that good academia attracts good academics.

To an extent, Matt is right, but he is mistaking symptoms for cause. If we look at the second point, which he refers to as network effects, we see the role of complex sequencing. Setting up a new university today is not the same as the creation of the Ancient universities – Oxford, Cambridge, Saint Andrew’s – the redbricks or even the plate glass universities. In the case of the American universities, a couple of hundred years of building up endowments means that promising academics in countries that do not have the traditions of freedom of speech and academic dialogue of the US are likely to end up overseas, hampering the development of an autoctonous academia. This explains Matt’s first point on cultural differences. Although I disagree with what seems a slightly Whiggish interpretation of history when Matt talks about cultural differences, the brain drain may result in reinforcing hostility to free speech. Geographic congregation for some skilled trades was noted by Adam Smith; this is a modern form of it.

There are other reasons that are essentially a result of complex sequencing. The de facto international language is English, which gives the US, along with a few other countries, a big head start.

xD.

House Resolution 106

I agree with Ewan Watt that the US House of Representatives’ Foreign Relations Committee should not have recognized the Armenian Genocide as such, but perhaps for slightly different reasons. Ewan is, in foreign policy terms, very much a realist and I do agree that the results of the Committee’s decision have already been profoundly negative – Turkey has summoned its ambassador to Washington back to Ankara for ‘a week or ten days of consultation’ but has stopped short of a recall. With US troops deployed in Iraq, a country that borders Turkey, Turkey’s strategic position and role and the desire not to alienate a country that teeters between West and East or to fuel the continuing problems between Turkey and Armenia – Karabakh and Baku-Ceyhan for instance – it seems like a poor decision.

Nevertheless, fiat justicia ruat coeli stands as a principle; if it is just, I feel it should be done, even though the consequences are uncomfortable, shall we say; to do otherwise is hypocritical and leads to a host of problems in international relations.

I question why the Committee felt the need to address the issue at all. Ewan also identifies the answer – special interest lobbying – but the implications haven’t been thought through. There are many other crimes – some committed by the US – that could be condemned.

More importantly, it is not the role of a Government to decide what history is; there can be no official version without grave risk of a government interfering unjustifiably in the process of discussion and debate. Equally, as Nye Bevan put it, ‘this is my truth; tell me yours’; whether ordained by the state or not, there is no one, true version of history, only arguments that are more or less persuasive. When the arguments are emotionally and geopolitically loaded, officially recognising a term can only cause problems and is, from a state, philosophically invalid.

As a note, I think it is wrong to use a category to encompass the Armenian Genocide and the Holocaust; they are both sui generis, IMHO.

The Committee chair, Tom Lantos, put it well in his comments ahead of the vote:

Today we are not considering whether the Armenian people were persecuted and died in huge numbers at the hands of Ottoman troops in the early 20th Century. There is unanimity in the Congress and across the country that these atrocities took place. If the resolution before us stated that fact alone, it would pass unanimously. The controversy lies in whether to make it United States policy at this moment in history to apply a single word – genocide – to encompass this enormous blot on human history.

xD.

George Mason and anti-Federalism

Today’s rain caused me to stop at Foyle’s (not that I need much of an excuse) and I picked up a copy of The Essential Federalist and Anti-Federalist Papers edited by David Wootton. I would have given a lot to have lived in those times, when it seems that the polity was alive with debate about the future direction of what would become the USA. There is a lot, reading arguments on both sides of the federalism debate, that is relevant to both Britain and Europe as they go through constitutional changes and to nascent and emerging democracies.

Anyway, the first paper is George Mason’s Objections to the Constitution of Government Formed by the Convention. Reading Mason’s Objections, there is a lot to think about that leads me to think that the Constitution of the United States has not been successful – of that more below. A few selected bits:

The President of the United States has no Constitutional Council, a thing unknown in any safe and regular government. He will therefore be unsupported by proper information and advice, and will generally be directed by minions and favorites; or he will become a tool to the Senate–or a Council of State will grow out of the principal officers of the great departments; the worst and most dangerous of all ingredients for such a Council in a free country; From this fatal defect has arisen the improper power of the Senate in the appointment of public officers, and the alarming dependence and connection between that branch of the legislature and the supreme Executive.

Hence also spurring that unnecessary officer the Vice- President, who for want of other employment is made president of the Senate, thereby dangerously blending the executive and legislative powers, besides always giving to some one of the States an unnecessary and unjust pre-eminence over the others.

I cannot help but think of the influence of a particular set of neo-conservative advisers on the current administration – Wolfowitz, Perle and not least Cheney – and the malign effects of there being no-one near the President to ‘speak truth to power’ save for the sidelined Powell.

Under their own construction of the general clause, at the end of the enumerated powers, the Congress may grant monopolies in trade and commerce, constitute new crimes, inflict unusual and severe punishments, and extend their powers as far as they shall think proper; so that the State legislatures have no security for the powers now presumed to remain to them, or the people for their rights.

In short, Mason’s predictions have come to pass. Largely but by no means exclusively through the commerce clause, the power of the federal government against the state has increased dramatically, far beyond what was originally envisioned by either side.

This government will set out a moderate aristocracy: it is at present impossible to foresee whether it will, in its operation, produce a monarchy, or a corrupt, tyrannical aristocracy; it will most probably vibrate some years between the two, and then terminate in the one or the other.

I think that, by the terms as Mason would have used them, we can see a ‘corrupt, tyrannical aristocracy’ rather than a monarchy. The blurring of the lines between executive and legislative, with many serving or former senators looking at contesting the presidency, is the corrupt – with one eye on the presidency and looking to private interest, senators and representatives will not act in the interests of the states they are meant to represent or the union they are meant to preserve. Indeed, by my count, ten former senators or congresspersons and two former senators have filed papers with the FEC – Republican Senators Brownback and McCain and Representatives Tancredo, Hunter and Paul and Democratic Senators Obama, Clinton, Dodd and Biden and Representative Kucinich, along with various former officeholders.

As to tyrannical, the distance of lawmakers from citizens and the development of an entire apparatus for lobbying for almost every (concentrated) interest under the sun would, I think, fit the description. I think that part of the tyranny complaint is self-perpetuation, which is why Mason and other anti-federalists spoke both of the right of insurrection in certain circumstances and of the fear that a minority – a minority with a privileged position to protect – could use the provisions that protect against a ‘tyranny of the majority’ to force a ‘tyranny of the minority’.

It is an aristocracy in the sense that it is a government of those with arete – the best or most able. However, their interests are not directed to their constituents’ need but to their own and to the interests of those about them. Again, self-perpetuation is an issue.

I’ve been thinking of late as to what extent, by the standards of its framers, the Constitution of the United States is successful or a failure. That particular idea I owe to my friend Jo Kibble. Many moons ago, we had a class together on whether the Attlee government was socialist or not; Jo’s argument was that ‘socialism is what the Labour party does’ and so if the 45-50 administration lived up to its promises, it would have been socialist. Part of this is the mythology that seems to surround the US Constitution. I have heard people say, with absolute seriousness, that the Constitution is ‘ordained by God’ and there is a lot of cant about the Founding Fathers – the Convention was not people coming together to argue it out, but compromising and fudging, leaving out or delaying some issues (particularly slavery) in a way that the most hardened comitologist would have to admire.

A brief aside on slavery – I understand that while Mason was a slaveowner, he wanted slavery to be abolished but did not want a provision on slavery, either way, to be included in the Constitution, which I read to be, in effect, an argument that the Constitution and, by extension, any constitution should not set policy. In a modern day setting, it would mean that the Constitution could not be used to permit or ban abortion, but also that the Second Amendment would have to be repealed.

xD.

Amnesty, Star Trek and China

This made me laugh – it came up on the irrepressible.info box from Amnesty on my blog.


If you click on the image, you’ll see the backstory – the BBC website is censored in China – but the idea of someone not wanting Star Trek fans to know that there was memorabilia to buy suggests a conspiracy on behalf of Comic Book Guy.

xD.

LSE SU Comms Officer Blog

My friend Ali Dewji, Communication Sabbatical Officer at the LSE Students’ Union, has launched a blog at sucomms.blogspot.com. This is an excellent idea. It allows more contact with him, lets him show his reasoning for things and, if and when the Beaver Online starts up properly and assuming they link to the blog, may increase student information and involvement.

xD.

Erik Ringmar

This just came to my attention by way of Facebook.

http://ringmar.net/forgethefootnotes/

Worth looking at. It would appear that the LSE are trying to censor Erik Ringmar, a professor of mine, for his speech to prospective students, in part by demanding he take down his blog.

Will post more when I know what’s going on…

xD.